复旦大学公共关系协会

“I was just another nobody ... the reaction was much greater than I expected,” says Xu, now a senior coach for China's modern pentathlon team. “The day after I won the title, a China Central TV reporter told me that all copies of every major Beijing newspaper had sold out. I said, ‘Ai-yah, this gold is really something!' ”

Now, as Beijing prepares to host the 2008 Olympics next month, every one of China's more than 600 competitors will be all too aware of how closely their performances will be tracked by their nation's increasingly nationalistic public and its Communist party rulers. The Olympics will be the greatest test of China's juguo or “whole nation” sports system, an expansive – and expensive – state apparatus designed to wipe out memories of past national weakness by delivering international sporting success.

In a pep talk to Olympic organisers in Beijing's Great Hall of the People this month, Xi Jinping, vice-president and party heir- apparent, said Chinese athletes should “seize the opportunity to battle for the nationality and win glory for the motherland”.

For Chinese officials and audiences, sporting results mean one thing above all others: Olympic gold. China's success in winning a record 32 golds at Athens in 2004 – ahead of Russia's 27 and only slightly behind the US's 35 – has fuelled expectations that on home ground the nation's athletes can come out on top.

A statistical model developed by PwC suggests that the “home country effect”, combined with strong state support for sport, could help China to win 88 medals next month, up from 63 in Athens and above the 87 forecast for the US. Given China's focus on gold (athletes are trained to consider silver or bronze a defeat), some observers suggest a local triumph is almost assured.

Not so fast, say top sports officials. To top the gold table, China would have to score unprecedented successes in sports where it has long been weak. Officials warn there is only limited room for growth in the disciplines it already dominates.

Others are more optimistic. Luo Hongtao, a China Central TV sports host who has been covering summer games since 1992, sees room for improvement even for China's divers, who won six out of eight golds in Athens. “In diving they will hope to get all the golds this time – and they have the strength to do it,” she says.

China's domination of table tennis means a clean gold sweep is possible there too (and men's star Wang Hao will certainly want to improve on the silver he gained in Athens). Badminton's Lin Dan and Xie Xingfang are well-placed to win separate golds in the men's and women's singles and put China on track to repeat its 2004 three-out-of-five result in the sport.

Chinese gymnasts are determined to improve on their single gold from a possible 14 in Athens. Team leaders for Beijing have in particular been studying how to take advantage of the open-ended gymnastics scoring system introduced since Athens, which rewards difficulty and execution separately. The Chinese aim to maximise scores by carefully weighing the difficulty of any given move against its risk – an approach that has already yielded high difficulty scores in recent competitions.

There is also room for progress in shooting, where China took home only four of the 15 golds on offer at the Athens 2004 Games. Steve Roush, chief of sport performance for the US Olympic Committee, has suggested that China could collect a dozen this time.

But Chinese officials argue that playing at home will offer only marginal help in many of their best events, which tend to require calm concentration rather than the adrenaline boost provided by a raucous local crowd. “Being the host country often puts even greater psychological pressure on athletes [in more technical disciplines], reducing the chance they'll be able to demonstrate their ability,” argues Xu, whose own steady nerves were vital to winning the 50m pistol gold in Los Angeles in 1984. “Being host does bring a bigger advantage for the more physical events but China is not up to scratch in those.”

Indeed, addressing China's weakness in track and field, as well as swimming and water sports, is a policy priority. After the Sydney Olympics in 2000, China established the “119 Project” (named after the number of golds then on offer from the three target areas) to give special support to athletes in those disciplines.

The project has borne some fruit. In Athens, China won four “119” golds compared with one in Sydney. However, the sheer competitiveness of international swimming and track and the sponsorship funding available to top stars means China's state-funded training programmes offer much less of an edge than it does in minority sports. Local swimmers have failed to shine since the disgrace of drug-fuelled 1990s teams. Apart from a few female marathon runners and Athens star hurdler Liu Xiang, track success remains elusive.

The juguo system may do better when it comes to water sports such as rowing and canoeing – although the recent sacking of the canoe and kayak team's legendary German coach Josef Capousek has done little for competitors' morale.

And China will surely score some surprise successes: perhaps in female mountain biking, where the cultivation of a group of young riders looks like it could pay off.

Mountain biking golds will not satisfy the home crowd, though. All eyes will be on Liu Xiang as he contests the men's 110m hurdles. For some spectators, Liu's performance may matter more than their nation's total gold haul. The Chinese have long chafed at their poor showing in the Olympics' most high-profile sports and Liu's Athens triumph was hailed as a demonstration of national and even racial prowess.

Though Liu is notably cool-headed, the pressure on him will be enormous. Cuban Dayron Robles beat his world record last month. His training has been disrupted by a hamstring injury. “We should trust in Liu Xiang and not give him too much pressure ... his painful training will certainly not leave us disappointed,” wrote one somewhat conflicted contributor to an online discussion of his prospects. Other fans insist a Liu defeat would be a national disaster. Whatever happens, newspapers should print extra copies.